Poll Reveals Religious Beliefs Critical Factor in Political Preferences
by Jody Brown
December 1, 2003
(AgapePress) - If you follow your regular routine and attend church on Sunday, October 31, 2004, there is a good chance you will vote two days later to give George W. Bush another four years in the White House. That's the findings of a recent poll that indicates American voters are sharply divided along religious lines.In its report entitled "The 2004 Political Landscape," the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press says America remains an "intensely religious nation." The survey found that more than 80% of Americans agree with at least one of the following three statements: (1) Prayer is an important part of my daily life; (2) We all will be called before God on Judgment Day to answer for our sins; and (3) I never doubt the existence of God. More than 70% agreed with all three statements.
Responses to those three questions also indicated that the "most religious" states in the union can be found, not surprisingly, in the traditional Bible Belt -- from Texas stretching eastward to the Carolinas and northward to Kentucky and West Virginia. By the same measure, the "least religious" states consist of the "Left Coast" -- California, Oregon, and Washington -- almost all of the New England states, and Minnesota.
Other breakdowns from the poll indicate that people who attend church regularly will probably vote Republican by a 2-1 margin (63% to 37%) -- and the reverse is true: those who never do to church likely will vote Democratic by a 2-1 margin (62% to 38%). The director of the Pew survey says that gap is the widest ever between the two major political parties.
In a Knight Ridder News article about the research results, one political scholar says religion is "THE most powerful predictor" of party identification and partisan voting intention. "And in a society that values religion as much as [this one], when there are high levels of religious belief and commitment and practice, that's significant," says Thomas Mann of the Washington, DC-based Brookings Institution.
According to the poll, the relationship between political ideology and religious faith has shifted notably in the last 15 years. While there was no increase among Democrats who agree with all three faith-related statements, Republicans appear to have become increasingly united in those beliefs, opening up a seven-point gap between the parties (78% of Republicans vs. 71% of Democrats). During the same period, the percentage of self-described conservatives in agreement with all the statements jumped eight percentage points to 81%, while the percentage of liberals in agreement dropped from 59% to 54%.
And according to the Pew report, the religious/political alignment is also evident within denominations. Fifteen years ago, white evangelical Protestants were split fairly evenly along party lines. But now there is a nearly 2-1 Republican advantage among that group. A similar, but reverse, shift was detected among white Catholics -- 41% identified themselves as Democrats, and 24% as Republicans in the late 1980s; party affiliation among that same group today is almost evenly divided (31% Democrat, 29% Republican).
The Pew report points out the partisanship of non-evangelical white Protestants and black Protestants remains relatively stable over that 15-year period.
Knight Ridder notes the openness with which President Bush exhibits his personal faith, pointing out that he often mixes theology with his public policies. "By contrast," the report says, "most leading Democratic candidates for president keep their campaigns secular, seldom mentioning God, religion or attending church -- except for the occasional well-publicized visit to an African-American church."
