Barna: Evangelicals Crucial to a Second Term for Bush
by Jody Brown
June 11, 2004
(AgapePress) - If you're wondering about the impact the Christian voting bloc could have on national elections this fall, pollster George Barna has some survey results that may motivate evangelical Christians to make it a high priority to beat a path to the voting booth.The Barna Research Group surveyed more than 1,600 randomly selected adults during the last week of May, asking them about their voting intentions and preferences this fall. Slightly more than three-fourths of those polled (78 percent) were registered voters, a group Barna contends offers a more realistic sampling of potential election results than provided simply by a survey of voting-age adults.
According to Barna, responses from registered voters indicates the presidential race would be a dead heat -- or as he puts it: "a replay of the 2000 election." In addition, he says President Bush holds a slim lead (five percentage points) among those in that group whose past voting behavior indicates they are likely to actually vote -- and a nine-point lead among those in that group who say they are "absolutely certain of whom they will vote for" come November.But Barna's group offers another insight from its survey that may cause George W. Bush and John Kerry to take note. The researchers came away with the following observation: people's choice of a presidential candidate on November 9, 2004, is more likely to be influenced by their faith than by their party preference or demographic background.
Evangelicals' Overconfidence a Dangerous Factor
Why is that important? Because Evangelicals (seven percent of the adult American population) have what Barna describes as an "alleged influence" in the political arena that attracts the media's interest in major elections -- and because 83 percent of Evangelicals voted for Bush four years ago.
"Evangelicals are ... the faith group most likely to vote [88 percent]," the Barna report says, "and are the population segment most supportive of the President's performance in office [89 percent]" And while Evangelicals are not exclusively Republican but are mostly conservative, they are one of the population segments most likely to be registered to vote and to actually exercise the privilege of voting.
Other "groupings" among America's Christian population (as described in the Barna study) include those who are "born again" (31 percent of the adult population) and those whom Barna categorizes as "notional" Christians (39 percent). Individuals in both of those groups, he says, turn out to vote at a rate slightly below that of the general population (67 percent) and tend not to consider themselves as "politically conservative" (38 percent among born-again; about 20 percent among notionals). (Editor's Note: Barna describes "notional Christians" as people who describe themselves as Christian, but are neither evangelical nor born-again.)
Barna has these "Election 2004" observations about the survey's findings: (1) born-again Christians strongly favor Bush over Kerry (a "surprising revelation," Barna says); (2) notional Christians prefer Kerry over Bush by a similar margin; and (3) agnostics, atheists, and "people aligned with non-Christian faiths" favor the Democratic candidate by substantially larger margins.
Continuing his look ahead to November, the Christian pollster says George W. Bush's chances of re-election "hinge squarely on the choices of the Christian body" -- and Evangelicals getting to the polls.
"Getting his supporters to actually turn out on Election Day will be critical for Mr. Bush," Barna says. "Currently, there is the danger of his most ardent supporters -- the Evangelicals -- failing to show up because they are so firmly convinced he will win."
Eight-one percent of Evangelicals predict a Bush victory in November, while only six percent say Kerry will win. Barna says if that confidence results in a deflated turnout among the president's support base, "a close election could swing to a different outcome."
